Russia / United States | The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) forecasts 2008 will still be another strong year for the steel industry with apparent steel use rising from 1,202 million metric tonnes (mmt) in 2007 to 1,282 mmt in 2008, an increase of 6.7%. New projections for 2009 suggest a global growth rate of 6.3%.

The IISI Executive Committee reviewed the forecasts at its meeting in St Petersburg. Commenting on the forecasts, Ku-Taek Lee, IISI Chairman says: 'The underlying assumption behind this forecast is that although some weakening in the US and EU economies is expected, demand for steel will remain healthy thanks in part to the emerging markets which will maintain their own dynamism.'

The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries will again be leading the growth with an expected increase of 11.1% for 2008 and 10.3% for 2009, predicts the IISI. However, as steel demand growth increases in other emerging countries, the large gap in growth rate - that we have come to expect in recent times - between BRIC countries and the rest of the world (ROW) will narrow.

China apparent steel use is expected to grow by 11.5% in 2008 and 10.0% in 2009, accounting for 35% of the world total in 2008. This is expected to reach 36.7% of world total by 2009. For India, forecasts for apparent steel use point to an increase of 8.9% in 2008 and 12.1% in 2009.

Growth in the Russian market is forecasted to remain strong with 10.2% for 2008 and 11.2% for 2009, led mainly by the energy and construction sectors. Apparent steel use in Brazil is expected to increase by 10.3% for 2008 and 8.9% for 2009, reflecting strong growth in the automotive, construction and engineering sectors.

In the EU (27), the growth in steel demand is predicted to continue at a more modest pace, following 2007 adjustments in inventory positions, leading to growth of 1.6% in 2008 and 2.3% in 2009.

2007 apparent steel use in the NAFTA region showed negative growth of -9.1% due to the slowing economy, inventory liquidation and decreased imports. 2008 will show a more stable position despite the weak uncertain economy leading to a positive growth forecast of 1.9% and 1.0% for 2009.

Acknowledgement

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